关键词: 海上风电, 风险评估, 风电波动, 并网容量

Abstract: In response to the grid-connected operation risks caused by the strong randomness and volatility of offshore wind power output, this study proposes a risk assessment method for grid-connected operation that considers wind power fluctuations. The TLS ( t-location scale ) distribution was employed to model the fluctuations in offshore wind power, establishing a risk assessment model for power system operation with integrated offshore wind power. A risk indicator system was constructed, encompassing wind curtailment loss, load shedding, and line / voltage limit violations. A combined weighting strategy integrating the analytic hierarchy process ( AHP ) with entropy weight method was proposed to achieve balanced
optimization of subjective and objective weights. Subsequently, monte carlo sampling was adopted to simulate component states, and optimal AC power flow calculations were performed to determine system voltage and power flow distributions. Risk assessment indicators were computed based on these results, and the entropy weight method was applied for weight allocation. Combined weights were derived by integrating the AHP method, yielding a comprehensive risk indicator. Simulations based on the IEEE-RTS79 system were conducted to analyze the impact of offshore wind power integration on grid operation risks. By comparing risk assessment indicators under different offshore wind power integration capacities and the differences in risk indicators when integration locations change, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.

Key words: offshore wind power, risk assessment, wind power fluctuates, grid-connected capacity